- Last time: Exam 2
- Sorry that I don't have your exams graded (finished) yet....
- Pick up any homeworks or rough drafts that are ready....
- Today: Chance Surprises
- We need to decide on dates for presentations: They begin 11/30, so
on the Wednesday of the week we get back from Thanksgiving! They're coming
right up...
- Any volunteers to go early? We've got three dates: 11/30,
12/5, and 12/7. Otherwise, you'll be randomly assigned,
in class on Wednesday.
- The in-class presentation will be oral, and should take
about 10-15 minutes. You will want to make a clear
presentation of your work, and your
results/discoveries.
- Your associated paper will be due
on the last day of presentations, the 7th of December.
- We will be taking some time on the 7th, to do
evaluations. This will include peer evaluations of
in-class presentations.
- Mensa
quiz: a coin is flipped 17 times, and each time it comes up heads: what's
the chance that it will be heads on the next flip?
- Definition of probability as limit of frequency
- If you flip a coin 17 times and it comes up heads 8 times and tails 9 times, you might suspect that it's fair!
- If you flip a coin 17 times and it comes up heads 17 times and tails 0 times, you might suspect that it's foul!
- Experiments from 7.1. How do the following work? How can we model
these to test them?
- Remember the "Let's make a deal" problem?
- coin problems
- two sons problem
- matching birthday problem
- Next time: Predicting the Future in an
Uncertain World
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