Today:
- Nothing due today!
- Rough drafts returned.
- Section 6.1/6.2 mindscapes returned:
- #8 -- how does your money grow?
- #13 -- two reflective symmetries!
- Section 6.3: creating fractals and chaos
- Reminder: Mindscapes, section 6.3, pp. 450-, #6, 14, 20, 21, 24, 31, 32 (none typed); Due Wednesday, 4/16
- Big picture: Simple rules can lead to complicated dynamics.
- Section 6.5: Predetermined Chaos (no mindscapes from this section)
- Chaos is roughly defined as "sensitive dependence on
initial conditions"
- What this means is that if you start at two different
points in a system (for example, in weather you might be thinking of a
state of three variables, such as temperature, barometric pressure, and
wind speed), very close to each other but distinct, then eventually the system
will produce wildly different behaviors (even those the starting conditions
were extremely close).
- Some links:
- Section 7.5: Collecting Data rather than dust (the power and
pitfalls of statistics)
- Assignment: Mindscapes pp. 581-: #1, 3, 4, 8; Type up 12. Due
Monday, 4/21
- A shocking announcement
- Sampling
- What is bias?
- Avoiding bias. Mindscape #5, p. 581.
- When is enough enough? Data, that is.
- Data should be
- accurate
- unbiased
- "sufficient in number to reflect the population's
variability"
- How do we get honest answers to life's tough questions?
- Are you rich?
- Do you cheat on your spouse?
- Do you have AIDS?
- Sampling with randomness -- sound like a good idea? Let's
try....
- Let's answer an embarrassing question: are you male or
female?
- Let's calculate the true rates of maleness and
femaleness in class...
- Each person will flip a coin:
- If it's heads, answer "Male"
- If it's tails, answer truthfully.
- How do we now estimate the true rate?
- Guess that half the "Male" answers are
from heads; the other half are truthful
answers.
- How could we adapt this process to lose less of our data,
say with a die?
- How would we choose a level of "data-loss", and
"answer-protection"?
- Now: what embarrassing question should we now attempt to
answer? Who's got something they really want to know?
Website maintained by Andy Long.
Comments appreciated.