Day 19 in Mat115

Today:

• Announcements:
  • I haven't finished looking over your project proposals (and fractals) yet. I'll have those by Tuesday. I may be emailing my comments about projects: if so, please "reply to", so that we have a trail to keep track of our comments to each other.

  • Remember, we're going to be going to the polls next time (Tuesday, 11/2)! Today we'll work out the logistical details. By the end of today I'll have a summary of the procedure to send out.

  • More on dual five-graphs: You may recall that I was unhappy with the graphic I took off the internet:

    All simple graphs with five vertices (there are 34!)

    (I claimed that this image is poorly drawn, in that we can't see the duality very well.) The graphs from six edges on up should have been drawn with arcs exactly where there aren't arcs in the preceding graphs....

    So I made my own!

  • Your questions about the voting readings will be due in a week, 11/4.

• Voting methods and sampling

  We'll start with an example: the "Sixth grade vice-presidential vote"

  	6 boys prefer	4 boys prefer	8 girls prefer	4 girls prefer
  First Choice	Chad	Chad	Gwyn	Courtney
  Second Choice	Courtney	Gwyn	Courtney	Gwyn
  Third Choice	Gwyn	Courtney	Chad	Chad

  Three voting schemes, three different winners. Who wins in each case?

  1. Plurality voting: the person with the most first place votes wins
  2. "Vote for Two": you get two votes, which are equal in weight (your top two). The person with the most votes wins.
  3. Borda Count Method: votes are weighted (e.g. 3 points for first, 2 points for second, 1 point for third). The person with the largest total wins.

  The upshot: the method of voting chosen may decide the election!

• Furthermore, there's an important result, called "Arrow's Impossibility Theorem", which says that no election system is perfect. There is only one voting system that satisfies the following three criteria:
  1. Going along with the consensus -- if it's unanimous, then we have a winner.
  2. Ignore the irrelevant -- throwing out a loser will not change the election.
  3. Better is better -- changing our vote to favor a candidate will not result in that candidate's ranking dropping.
  The only system for deciding between three or more candidates that satisfies those very reasonable criteria is a dictatorship!

• My favorite system is instant (or sequential) run-off, until we have a majority. Who wins? (Visit the Voting Scheme Activity for more practice with each of these methods.)

• Calling the Kentucky Senate Race

  We're going to be collecting data, to see how well we do at predicting the actual election results for a particular race. Since most of us live in Kentucky, but may live in different areas, it makes sense to focus on a Kentucky-wide election, so we'll try to predict the Senate race, between Rand Paul and Jack Conway.

  (Note: if you don't live in Kentucky, you may collect information on another race of your choosing -- but make sure to identify your precinct exactly.)

  In Kentucky, you may find out if you're registered (and where to vote) using the website Where to vote in Kentucky.

  My precinct is listed as:

  Precinct Information
  ST CATHERINE CHURCH
  FT THOMAS B
  1803 N FORT THOMAS AVE
  FT THOMAS   KY
  

  So I will go there and vote, and I could collect my data at that spot. I spoke with Jack Snodgrass, Campbell County Clerk, to get the legal details about how we may legally collect data outside of a precinct, and this is a summary of what he said:

  You'll be considered "exit pollers". You must not wear anything political. The official statute governing exit polling is KRS117.235. Here's the upshot: You don't have to register, and there's no restricted distance you must stand from front door. You are forbidden from exit polling inside; You can approach voters when they come out, but you must not disrupt the election process in any way.

• Now, two things:
  • What information do we collect, and
  • How do we collect it?

• What information do we collect?
  • This is the easy part: we're going to collect voters' votes on the Kentucky Senate Race.
  • Detail: in order to make our lives easy, we're only going to focus on those who voted for either Conway or Paul. So we don't want to collect information on those who voted for "neither".
  • We will shoot for at least 30 total votes at each precinct.

• How do we collect it? (This is the tricky part!)
  • How do we approach/choose voters?
    • Uniformly: this means that we need a script (here's our sample). What are we going to say? (Secretary, please!)
    • How do we choose voters?
      • Sample all, if possible; but do not select voters specifically.
      • Randomly, otherwise: do not merely approach those who smile, or the elderly, or.... why? Why randomly?
  • How do we protect ourselves from liars? How do we assure an honest response?
    • We need to provide anonymity. How do we do it?

• What you will provide (due Tuesday, 11/9, and worth two homework grades):
  1. A picture of you at your precinct, with your voting container;
  2. A written description of your experience (one page, typed, submitted to me via email -- to be shared with the class through our homepage, so make sure you don't include anything you wouldn't want out on the internet)
  3. The results at your precinct. Include
     • The name and location of your precinct;
     • Time of day (start, end);
     • The number of voters you contacted (include all voters you spoke with, including those who refused to answer); and
     • the tally for each candidate.

Links:

• Voting Scheme Activity
• Borda Count wins
• Final Election Exit Poll Instructions
• KY Election Results