Last Time | Next Time |
Strategy | Initial Guess (# students
who think this strategy is better) |
Guess after simulation |
Stick | 17 | 2 |
Switch | 12 | 21 |
Equal | 8 | 7 |
After simulation, you (collectively) decided to "switch to switching": let's see what the data looked like: for example, Nick and Andy played 10 games, and switching won 7 and lost 3 (which means that sticking would have lost 7 and won 3! -- that's an example of using symmetry in a problem).
What did others discover? Let's look at the data....
One way to convince yourself that switching is better is by planning a "bigger" game: what if there were one million doors, and you chose one -- then Monty Hall opened all but one of the doors to show mules.
Would you switch, or stick with your initial guess?