Mini-Project 3

We have been asked by Togo's Direction Generale de la Meteorologie Nationale to help determine if Togo's surface temperatures are increasing (or changing, and how), in light of the predictions by climate scientists.

• In Mini-Project 1, you worked with annual data for a particular city, and produced a report. Those reports are contained here.

• In Mini-Project 2, you worked with monthly data for a different city, with a different partner, and produced a report. Those reports are contained here.

• In Mini-Project 3, you worked with monthly rainfall data for a third city, with a different partner, and produced a report. Those reports are contained here.

The Togolese have now also provided us with monthly rainfall data on those same cities: here are those data (as provided to me).

We would like to use that data to

1. determine if there is a relationship between rainfall and temperatures.
2. create a model (including periodicity) of rainfall that would provide them with predictions for the next several years into the future.
3. You might experiment with more complicated periodic functions. For example, incorporate pairs of sine and cosine terms with other periods: for example \[ \sin(\frac{2\pi t}{2}) \] has a period of two years; \[ \sin(\frac{2\pi t}{1/2}) = \sin(4 \pi t) \] has a period of half a year. You get the picture. I might be tempted to try some periods of the form \[ \sin(2^n\pi t) \] where $n$ is an integer (positive and negative!). There's a limit (the Nyquist limit!) to what you can "scope out". You might have a look at that.

Each of you has been assigned a particular city, different from the one you studied in the first mini-project. You should all be working with a different partner (or partners). Group number corresponds to the city as initially given:

        1     Lome         
        2     Tabligbo     
        3     Kouma-Konda  
        4     Atakpame     
        5     Sotouboua    
        6     Sokode       
        7     Kara         
        8     Niamtougou   
        9     Mango        
       10     Dapaong      

Last Name,First Name,Group
Hardesty,Austin,1
Odhiambo,Donna,1
Gillespie,Leah,2
Driehaus,Rachel,2
Campbell,Austin,3
Englert,Jacob,3
Zembrodt,Alli,4
Compton,Lizzy,4
Edwards,Connor,5
Dufek,Sally,5
Ruwe,Maria,6
Ficke,Terra,6
Koors,Jacob,7
Farmer,Alyssa,7
May,Adam,8
Frink,Clayton,8
McMahon,Maria,9
Gall,Matthew,9
Nielsen,Patrick,10
Milesky,Chris,10

1. You will begin with an evaluation phase, due 2/23, which you hand to me (one to two pages, typed) and which is strictly anonymous (i.e. no one else will ever see it):
   1. Evaluate your own report, especially comparing it to other reports.
   2. Compare your partner(s)' and your contributions to the report. Perhaps you took different roles, which you can describe.
   3. Evaluate the report by the second group to study your new city. Identify things that you like, and things that you think could have been done better.

2. Your group should produce a typed report in pdf format (no more than ten pages, including figures), as well as any scripts or code you used to produce your report.

   For this report, you will do the following:

   1. The first and second mini-project reports are preliminary work. You can cite them, discuss them, and otherwise use them as you wish. You can suggest improvements, corrections, or pin gold medals on them. It's just like all published research -- there for people to use, appreciate, or take pot shots at!:)

      You may use them as the basis for your new report, but credit given where credit is due.

      Your report will extend those reports -- that was preliminary work. This is similar work, with a different purpose.

   2. Include background information on your city (or region), focusing especially on anything that might impact climate.
   3. Continue to ruthlessly identify outliers in the rainfall data. If anything smells at all suspicious, you should identify it, create a record of your suspicions, and we should ask the question of the Togolese.
   4. Determine if rainfall for your city varies with temperature over time. Discuss any characteristics of the data that seem relevant.
   5. Provide and discuss your best model of $rainfall(time, temperature)$. Evaluate your models.
   6. Provide graphs of the data with their model(s), with labels and title.
   7. Provide graphs of the residuals, with labels and title.
   8. Discuss what additional information might be useful moving forward, problems with your data, and any information you'd like to know from the Togolese meteorologists.
   9. Submit your report electronically, as well as a paper copy. Provide supporting scripts, etc., electronically only.
   The report is due Friday, 3/2.