- Roll
- Reminder: please keep the phones out of sight and sound.
- You have a homework due today -- your one-page conclusion, including
- Assumptions
- Your plan
- Your calculations and decision
- Your evaluation.
- Let's take a vote (secret ballot): Thad or Thomas -- who's the GOAT? (Results: Thad, 13 to 1)
- Our objective was to formulate a plan, so that by today you should have carried it out to reach our conclusion.
- Some thoughts/highlights from your papers:
- I was hoping that you'd be annotating (commenting on) each others' work. We'll be evaluating each other's work throughout, so this was a practice. Cameron and Luke, and Elijah/Jon/Sean did this particularly well.
- cite work (if you pull data from elsewhere, find a formula, etc., please give the source)
- Brainstorm -- share your wildest thoughts -- Thanks Kate! Nice example.
- Did anyone think of carrying out a study?
- Let's move to typing things up in the future. That way you
have a better record, which you can iteratively
improve, moving toward that final report....
We need to write, and write well -- in this class, especially. Please consider sharing your writing with others -- in particular, peer editing is incredibly useful.
- Great work tracking down other data, and Riegel's formula!
- We learned that there are formulas on the web for this:
- Runner's World and Hillrunner.com use an early version of Peter Riegel's formulas: \[ T_2=T_1(\frac{d_2}{d_1})^{1.06} \]
- A link to Peter Riegel's original work is below (and
he cites several other sources, some of which I could
track down):
More on that in a moment.... - Nike shoes that have revolutionised marathon times unlikely to be banned
- What can make of the new data -- the three best times?
As for top three times: Thomas 17:15 17:20 17:24 Thad 13:30 13:35 13:37
- Having rendered a decision, how confident are we in that? (Time to evaluate!)
- So let's get back into our groups, compare our final results, and we'll decide just how comfortable we are, and WHY. Again, swap work throughout your groups, and annotate as we go.
- Prediction
calculators still give a rose-tinted view for most runners, says
Fetcheveryone's Ian Williams. He takes another look at the stats:
"Riegel's classic formula uses R=1.06, which still provides excellent
predictions for most distances even 40 years later -- but out of 1,071
marathon runners in our Fetcheveryone sample (all of whom had completed
at least five half and five full marathons), less than 5% managed a
time that kept up with Riegel's predictions. The rest fell short."
This on-line article begins by making the point that if you double your distance, then your time does not double -- but goes up by \[ 2^b \] So, if $d_2$ is twice $d_1$, then \[ T_2=T_1(\frac{d_2}{d_1})^{1.06}=T_1(2)^{1.06} \]
- And although they claim that it works well for most distances, it
doesn't seem to work well for marathoners:
(Thanks Sean)
- the
2019 Division 1 State Championship race results (thanks Kate)
Kate says "I took the top 30 scores as discussed in my paper and put them in a spreadsheet"
Kate also provided links to
- district results, 2019
- regional results, 2019