Math Modeling: Day 17

Last time

Next time

Announcements
- Your exams are returned. Some of you did fine, some not so fine.
  - There is exam redemption! You can retake exam 1, at your leisure, and I'll average your two scores.
  - You may discuss the problems with each other, and with me.
  - Print off a fresh copy of the exam, and submit both exams. Do not alter the original.
  - These will be due Friday, 2/28.
  - Note: I'd like them all back, even if you choose not to revise.
- Your Keeling group reports are also going to be revised, but I'm going to hold those until your exams are fixed up. So I'll issue that assignment on Friday.
Last time:
- We reviewed some aspects of the Cross Country paper and the Log Rule paper, for examples of interpreting parameters, and some of the structural aspects of modeling.
Today:
- We will now transition to non-linear modeling, and we start on our major project: searching for evidence of climate change in data on extreme temperatures in Wood County, 1854-1992 (the Fletcher data).
  Let me begin by giving some of you a hand, however with the exam revisions. Let's look at atmospheric methane for a moment. What is the most important feature of this data?
- New groups: we continue to rotate, as we did last time:
  - Jared, Jake, Tom
  - Luke, Jacob, Samuel
  - Sean, Silas, Cameron
  - Kate, Thomas, Jordan
  - Proctor, Jon
  These are your groups for data entry, and preliminary analysis.
  I rolled the dice, and here are each group's primary responsibility:
  - Jared, Jake, Tom: maxmax
  - Luke, Jacob, Samuel: minmax
  - Sean, Silas, Cameron: minmin
  - Kate, Thomas, Jordan: maxmin
  - Proctor, Jon: first three months, all four variables.
  Your first deliverable: enter the data into a spreadsheet with 366 entries (due Friday).
  You should triple enter the data -- that is, each person should enter it separately, then compare to make sure that it was accurately entered.
  You might build a common spreadsheet (like this perhaps), so that it's easy to compare.
- Now let's turn our thoughts to the data on temperature extremes in Wood County. I have two questions, and I'm going to let you all brainstorm on these:
  1. What would we expect to see in the absence of any effect of climate change?
  2. How might we imagine the impact of climate change on the distributions of daily temperatures throughout the year, over these 140 or so years?
- None of us have not seen the data yet -- so this is a good moment to reflect on what we might expect to see. Then, when we see it, we will try to answer the question What is the most important feature of this data?
Links:
- The history of fracking.
- Study: Fracking prompts global spike in atmospheric methane: "If we can stop pouring methane into the atmosphere, it will dissipate", he said. "It goes away pretty quickly, compared to carbon dioxide. It's the low-hanging fruit to slow global warming."
- "The IPCC stands by its equation of 450 ppm = 2 degrees C [of warming]....": For years scientists have said that if atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide reach 450 parts per million (ppm) the planet would heat up by an average of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. They have also said that if the world crosses that threshold, ecosystems worldwide would suffer serious damage.
  [ael: by the way -- ecosystems worldwide are already suffering serious damage.... The world won't "suddenly heat up" if we reach 450 ppm -- it's heating up right now, and we're seeing bumblebees struggle with the heat, for example. They pollinate our food -- think about it....]

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