- Rabies entered Connecticut in 1991, and spread across the state
in an epidemic wave. Rabies has now entered an endemic phase in
Connecticut.
- The epizootic front was modelled as a linear wave travelling at
about 46 km/yr, from southwest to northeast:
y = mx + at +b
with a good fit (R-squared: 0.841304).
- We have a model for the Local Spread:
- Modelling involves thoughtful translation of written or verbal
descriptions into mathematical concepts such as functional forms
(e.g. linear function, bell-shaped functions, etc.). Remember Occam's Razor:
the simplest satisfactory model is the best one.
- HTML, Javascript, images, links provide powerful tools for
making presentations and illustrating concepts, which are accessible to
people all over the WWW. Other software tools such as GIS (Geographic
Information Systems), spreadsheets, and programming languages play an
essential role in the translation of "strategic math models" into actual
models.
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