To develop the equations, we need to write the mass balance equations for each compartment. These are:
The problem is that is not a constant. Let us try to figure it out. It seems obvious that the rate must depend on the number of susceptibles, infecteds and immunes and the probability of transmitting the disease in a contact. Suppose each susceptible makes c contacts per unit of time that are of the disease transmitting type. Then the susceptibles make cX contacts per unit time. Assume the contacts are at random with members of the total population, N=X+Y+Z. Then only the fraction Y/N of the contacts are with infectious individuals. Let be the probability of transmission in a contact between an infected and a susceptible. Then the rate susceptibles become infected must be,
so must be the coefficient of X in that expression. With that we can write the equations in the form,
The problem is that equations (4)-(6) form a set of nonlinear compartmental equations and the solution is difficult to obtain. Fortunately, examination of equation (5) tells us most of the important things we need to know about this process. To do that, we rewrite equation (5) in the factored form,