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Herd Immunity

Now we illustrate another fundamental concept of epidemiology. Using the definition of tex2html_wrap_inline260 , rewrite equation (5a),

displaymath298

Suppose we immunize 90% of the population; then when we introduce a few infecteds, Z is 90% and X is 10% of the population, so X/N=.1. In that case, so long as tex2html_wrap_inline306 , tex2html_wrap_inline308 and the epidemic cannot take off. If you know tex2html_wrap_inline260 , you can use equation (5b) to calculate the minimum fraction of the population that must be immunized to prevent an epidemic. Again, the general principle holds for more complicated transmission systems although it may be difficult to calculate the required immunization exactly for more complicated systems. The larger tex2html_wrap_inline260 the larger the fraction of the population that must be immunized to prevent an epidemic.



Andrew E Long
Wed Oct 27 23:58:42 EDT 1999