- Rabies entered Connecticut in 1991, and spread across the state
in an epidemic wave. Rabies has now entered an endemic phase in
Connecticut.
- Science seeks to explain pattern with process. We
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observed the time series data,
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deduced a pattern for the front, modeled with a modulated linear front;
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used this model to obtain a pattern of local response;
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reproduced the pattern using process-based model
(Integro-differential equations, replaced by system of ODEs via
restricted choice of kernel -- the "Linear Chain Trick").
- Present and future work:
- refine delay equation solution(s) for local response
(so that the fit is good and the parameters make
sense!);
- model kernel (find data, "mine" biologists)
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