Day 01: Statistics for Business Applications

Welcome!

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics
(from the autobiography of Mark Twain)
Roll
Introductions (4x6 cards)
1. Name
2. Where are you from?
3. Working? If so, where? How many hours?
4. Year (Freshman, etc.)
5. Major
6. Why are you taking MAT212?
7. What is your math background/experience?
8. Something special about yourself.
Some course details:
- Big objective:
  Statistical self-defense ("Statistical practicioner"), with a special focus on writing
  Note: there's a difference between self-defense, and mastering a martial art.
- Course Website
- Assignments (due approximately one week after issue -- I'll be specific in each case -- and subject to collection at that time)
- Syllabus (logistics, etc.)
- Departmental Syllabus, and Study Do's
- Objectives by chapter
Questions about class procedures or logistics?
Today: sections 1.1-1.3 (while there are no problems related to 1.3, it contains interesting illustrations of why one might be interested....)
- Statistics:
  - a method of deriving information from data
  - generally involve uncertainty
    - "confidence level"
    - "significance level"
  - generally involve error (data quality issues)
  - Lingua Franca of business - spoken all over the world, in all areas of business.
  - are often misused, and frequently misunderstood.
  You need to be aware of statistics, even if you don't want to understand statistics! And you'll want to keep the phone number of a good statistician around....
- The Pepsi Challenge (basic strategy and vocabulary, p. 2)
  - The setup:
    - Pepsi exclusivity contract option
    - 50,000 students
    - consumer cost: 75 cents per can
    - actual cost: 20 cents per can
    - 22,000 cans per week, over 40 weeks
    - University wants 35% of on-campus revenues
    - If the market share is 25%, should they enter the agreement?
    Statistics helps us estimate market share:
    - Descriptive statistics
    - Inferential statistics
  - The Data in text format or Minitab format or Excel format is on-line, and we will generally use Minitab to view it. You will find the data on the CD which accompanies the text as well.
- How do the experts do it? (The Gallup (polling) Organization)
- Objectives for this section:
  - In the terms of any example be able to identify
    - the population - the group of all items of interest to the statistics practitioner
    - the sample - a set of data drawn from the population
    - the parameter - a descriptive measure of the population
    - the statistic - a descriptive measure of the sample
    - statistical inference - the process of making an estimate, prediction, or decision about a population based on sample data
  - Be able to identify examples of descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.
- The general statistics website has helpful examples of how we expect you to write up your solutions.

Website maintained by Andy Long. Comments appreciated.

Day 01: Statistics for Business Applications

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics