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Today:
where, for , -- which says that the derivative (or rate of change) of an exponential function is directly proportional to the exponential function itself.
This is almost a magical property: the rate of change of an exponential function is proportional to its value. In one case, the rate of change is the function value. The slope of the tangent line is the value of the function. Curious!
The model itself is also based on exponentials. In this case it is given by the function
From this model we can project into the future that the "carrying capacity" is the limit as t goes to infinity, which leads to a projected to be about 9 billion (9144 million):
The model predicts that, as of 2050, there will be about 8.6 billion people. Today it says that there are about 7.14 billion. An estimate of 7.26 billion was obtained today (Sun Aug 24 18:06:05 EDT 2014).
Many phenomena in nature possess the same logistic form, well illustrated with this image from the September 1993 issue of Scientific American on the Immune System:
These models appear to be doing a better job of capturing the kind of behavior that the model of Figure 9, p. 395, missed.
(How does symmetry help us to understand the absolute value in this result? Click on Theorem 2 to find out....)