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What we're expecting, in the absence of some systematic effect, is a uniform distribution (all bins the same height). These distributions are not uniform: here are some chi-square results (Statcrunch) which show that they are not uniform (right-click to view the image in order to enlarge it).
They don't exactly meet our expectations, however: in the face of climate change, assuming that the temperature distribution were just shifting toward higher temperatures (with no other change to the distribution) we would have expected the following (histogram below; a "q-q" type plot above, showing how a uniform would be distributed versus how the data was actually distributed -- if it were uniform, the two graphs would agree):
MaxMax | MinMax | MaxMin | MinMin |
We'd expect to see more max maxes in more recent decades. | We'd expect to see more min maxes in earlier decades. | We'd expect to see more max mins in more recent decades | We'd expect to see more min mins in earlier decades. |
In terms of decades, I would say that things look fairly muddy at the moment. While the results are clearly not uniform, they also do not seem to conform as well to our guesses about what we would expect under climate change as I had hoped they would.
A couple of observation:
All of these are plainly not uniform. So that suggests that the climate has changed: it's simply a matter of understanding how. A couple of observation:
Please, please: put MAT375 (as one word (i.e. not "MAT 375"), as well as assignment info) in the subject line of your message -- I'll be routing all messages using the tag MAT375. It will really help.
Some good links that I might recommend (a few of which we'll focus on):
In particular, we will implement The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model in InsightMaker.
(An excellent introduction to SIR models, from both the infectious disease and mathematical sides)
Questions:
This on-line estimator (i.e., a model!) allows one to estimate deaths, as well as death by age-category.