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We explored what is known as the probability density function (pdf) of an exponential distribution, \[ \int_{0}^{+ \infty} k e^{-k x} d x = 1 \]
The mean of an exponential distribution with rate parameter \(k\) is \(\frac{1}{k}\). We were able to show that with a calculation:
The average of any function of \(x\), \(f(x)\), is obtained by multiplying \(f(x)\) times the probability density, and integrating over the domain where the integrand is non-zero: \[ \overline{f(x)} = \int_{0}^{+ \infty} f(x) k e^{-k x} d x \] Since we wanted the average of \(x\), this becomes \[ \overline{x} = \int_{0}^{+ \infty} x k e^{-k x} d x \] which is indeed \(\frac{1}{k}\). Therefore, if the average time between accidents is 3 months, \(k=\frac{1}{3}\).
So the probability of a time between accidents of 8 months or more (and this explains why we let the upper limit go to infinity -- anything bigger than 8) is \[ \int_{8}^{+ \infty} \frac{1}{3} e^{-\frac{x}{3}} d x \approx .0077 \]
We can quickly reach the conclusion that \(I\) is divergent, because in one case (on the positive side) the integrand is headed for infinity as \(x \rightarrow \pm \infty\).