Assignment Schedule for Mat375

Day Date Activity Assignment
Mon1/8 Welcome/Intro Graphs of Togolese Temperature data (due next time); Read over this summary of George Polya's problem-solving strategy: what do you think?
Wed1/10 Examples of problems and models: Model Classes -- the function zoo Intro to Mini-project 1: Togolese temps (due 1/26); Read over the Bestiary of functions, from Ben Bolker's Ecological Models and Data in R. Note in particular the reasons for using these particular functions as models for different phenomena.

You might try some of the R code at the end, if you have the courage! I like RStudio (freely available) for doing my work in R. Google and download if you wish.

Fri1/12 The Modeling Process (UPCE): Global CO2  
Mon1/15 Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday No Class! Already? Enjoy!
Wed1/17 Empirical Modeling: Linear Regression -- fitting a line Use the Mathematica code we discuss in class to create linear model(s) to your Togolese temperature data. Do you see a significant increasing trend in either maxes or mins? Work with your group-mate(s) on this.
Fri1/19 Univariate and Multivariate Derivation: multivariate calculus and linear algebra Assignment: use the equations we've derived to compute -- "by hand" -- the least squares line for Stewart's Keeling data. Due Wednesday, 1/24.
Mon1/22 Univariate and Multivariate Derivation, continued  
Wed1/24 Linear Regression: Diagnostics (evaluation)  
Fri1/26 Linear Regression with non-linear curves Use linear regression to fit a model to the interpolated Keeling data that includes Sine and Cosine terms with periods of a year to capture the oscillations, and a quadratic fit to the trend. Provide diagnostics, and test a cubic model for the trend. You might use a command like

keeling = Import["Desktop/classes/2018Spring/mat375/Keeling.csv"];

to read the data into Mathematica as a matrix (where you need to use the proper directory path). (Due 2/2)

Mon1/29 Linearization of the non-linear  
Wed1/31 Linearization  
Fri2/2 Global CO2: when does it peak? Intro to Mini-project 2: Togolese temps
Mon2/5 Non-linear Regression: Newton's method; iterates as models of roots For Monday, 2/12: Please write up the Advertising expenditures problem, answering the question that we haven't gotten to yet:

Advertising expenditures. This example is from Mooney and Swift's A Course in Mathematical Modeling (p. 169). They suggest two models for the data:

  • Power model: $y(t)=at^b$
  • Exponential model: $y(t)=ae^{bt}$
Questions:
  • How do they compare with the linear model and with each other? Examine all of the usual diagnostics.
  • What problem does the power model pose, relative to starting value of time $t$? Does it change if we represent years as 1970 rather than 70?

    How do we interpret the power? (Remember my remarks above about interpreting the parameters of your model!)

    Does the exponential model suffer the same problem? What is the impact of a shift in time scale?

Wed2/7 Winter weather day! Please skim over this website: The Population Biology of Isle Royale Wolves and Moose: An Overview

This is your introduction to a system whose dynamics we will be studying.

In particular, I want you to notice all of the scatterplots and regressions. The authors use regression to characterize various facets of the population biology, as well as to estimate parameters for models. Regression is a very important tool in our modeling toolboxes.

You should have done this by Wednesday, 2/14.

Fri2/9 Non-linear Regression, continued: cadavars Evaluations of Mini-Project 1 due (see Mini-project 2). For Monday, please read pages 3-8 (the 7th-12th pages of the pdf) of this intro to modeling, by De Vries, et al. It gives us a tiny introduction to differential equations, difference equations, growth, and SIR infection models -- things we'll be studying in the week(s) ahead.
Mon2/12 Mechanistic models: De Vries, et al. In preparation for Wednesday, please create a login at https://insightmaker.com/.
Wed2/14 Insight Maker: An SIR model  
Fri2/16 Insight Maker: An SIR model (cont.) Mini-Project 2 due; Intro to Mini-Project 3 (due Friday, 3/2).
Mon2/19 Insight Maker: An SIR model (cont.)  
Wed2/21 Insight Maker: More SIR You have an "exam prep" homework due the Monday after break, 3/12. Start early, and ask questions as needed.
Fri2/23 The moose and wolves of Isle Royale  
Mon2/26 More of moose and wolves, with Mathematica  
Wed2/28 More of moose and wolves, with Mathematica  
Fri3/2 Logistic plant growth -- regression and a differential equation Mini-project 3 due; Final Project Teams Announced
Mon3/5 Spring Break  
Wed3/7 Spring Break  
Fri3/9 Spring Break  
Mon3/12 From regression to ODE: plant growth  
Wed3/14 Review  
Fri3/16 Midterm Exam
Mon3/19 Decompress Revise your in-class midterms for half-credit. Due Friday.

Review your own city's rainfall report (and collaboration), and compare and contrast the two reports for your two previous cities. Three pages, typed. Due Monday, 3/26.

Wed3/21 Markov Models (back to linear algebra!)  
Fri3/23 Basic Theory  
Mon3/26 Markov model of English Birthweights, and an SIR  
Wed3/28

Assignment for all: please have a member of each city's group email Jacob with a summary of identified issues in the three reports prepared so far (and any other issues identified since).

Olinick's Hoffman Galla tribe example: Please read Olinick's Chapter 11 on the Galla's practice of Age Classes for males (to discuss Monday).

Hoffman's 1965 paper (in which he describes the deterministic model).

Fri3/30  
Mon4/2    
Wed4/4  
Fri4/6 Olinick's Galla Model Assignment: see Day 34 for your instructions. Due Friday 4/13.
Mon4/9 Absorbing Markov Chains The Togolese have replied to our questions, meaning you have a homework for Wednesday: evaluate their responses, and comment on their responses and propose follow up questions (one page, submitted electronically to both me, and to Maria McMahon).
Wed4/11 Tennis, anyone?  
Fri4/13 Olinick's Tennis example You have a homework due Friday, 4/20. See day 37.
Mon4/16 Extending Markov chains  
Wed4/18 Bifurcation and Chaos  
Fri4/20 Beetle Mania Your final project responsibilities
Mon4/23 Final Project Presentations  
Wed4/25 Final Project Presentations  
Fri4/27 Review  
Mon4/30 Prepare rest
Fri5/2 Final Exam Final Projects due.

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